Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 6 brokers · 317 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-24.

Broker Models

Broker models frame TaskUs as a business with a slow-growing legacy core and one accelerating engine. Digital customer experience — still the majority of revenue — is modeled almost flat, slipping from 58% to 51% of the mix. AI operations does the work: from roughly $203M and 17% of revenue in FY2025 to about $358M and 26% by FY2028. That single line is also where broker estimates diverge most, so the model debate is really a debate about the AI ramp.

AI operations is the modeled growth engine

Source: derived from vendor data.

Total revenue is modeled to compound at a mid-single-digit rate — about $1.17B in FY2025 to $1.41B in FY2028 — but the composition is what matters. AI operations nearly doubles over the horizon while the two larger lines barely move. Digital customer experience adds only about $31M across three years, and Content security is essentially flat near $290M to $318M.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Legacy Digital customer experience slips below half the mix

The mix shift is the cleanest way to read the model. Digital customer experience — the traditional support and delivery business — falls from about 58% of revenue to 51% over the horizon, crossing below half by FY2028. AI operations picks up the ceded share, rising from 17% to 26%; Content security drifts down slightly. This is a re-weighting, not a decline: DCX dollars still grow, just slower than the company overall.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Where brokers disagree: the AI ramp

The AI operations line is thin on coverage and wide on outcome. Through FY2028 it rests on only three to four brokers, and the spread balloons over time: FY2025 estimates sit in a tight $191M to $216M band, but by FY2028 they run from $260M to $409M — a range wider than the entire Content security segment. The bull-versus-bear case for TaskUs is largely a single question: how fast AI operations scales.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The profit path dips in FY2026 before recovering

EBITDA is modeled roughly flat-to-up, reaching about $240M by FY2028, but net income and EPS take a visible detour first. Diluted EPS is modeled to fall from about $0.99 in FY2025 to $0.90 in FY2026, then recover to $1.14 by FY2028; net income traces the same trough, dipping from roughly $93M to $83M before rebuilding. Operating income holds steady through the dip, so the FY2026 soft patch sits below the operating line rather than in the core business.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Cash conversion holds through the dip

Free cash flow keeps climbing even where earnings wobble: brokers model FCF from about $99M in FY2025 to $138M in FY2028, tracking operating cash flow of roughly $159M to $206M. The gap between the two is modest and stable — capital intensity in this delivery model is low — so the FY2026 earnings dip does not show up in cash.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Geography: the United States is the fastest-growing delivery line

On the two brokers that split revenue by geography, the Philippines remains the delivery hub at roughly $643M to $705M, but the United States line grows fastest — about $130M to $171M from FY2025 to FY2027, consistent with onshore and nearshore demand. India grows steadily; Rest of World is flat. This cut is the thinnest in the feed, so read it as directional.

Source: derived from vendor data.

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